S&P Global on India's GDP: S&P Global Ratings has revised India's growth estimates for the upcoming two financial years on the back of stagnancy of high interest rates and lower fiscal fiscal impulse temper urban demand. The rating agency also noted that there are high-frequency high-frequency indicators that signal a 'transitory softening' in the overall growth. 

"In India we see GDP growth easing to 6.8 per cent this fiscal year as high interest rates and a lower fiscal impulse temper urban demand. While purchasing manager indices (PMIs) remain convincingly in the expansion zone, other high-frequency indicators indicate some transitory softening of growth momentum due to the hit to the construction sector in the September quarter," the assessment report stated. 

The American credit ratings agency has revised the estimates for the 2025-26 financial year (April 2025 to March 2026) and 6.8 per cent in the following fiscal year on the back of a change in power in the White House. The revision in the economic forecast for the Asia-Pacific Economies comes as S&P Global reassess the GDP estimates after Donald Trump emerged as the winner of the US Presidential Elections and set to replace Joe Biden in January 2025. 

For the financial year 2025, the rating agency has pegged the GDP growth rate at 6.8 per cent while maintaining the status quo for the Chinese economy. However, the agency also believes that India's growth will regain the 7 per cent growth mark in the financial year 2028. 

China's Growth Estimate Remains Steady

S&P has retained its 2024 growth forecast for China at 4.8 per cent but revised projections for subsequent years. The 2025 growth estimate has been reduced to 4.1 per cent from 4.3 per cent, while the 2026 forecast has been cut to 3.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent. For the ongoing financial year (FY2025), the agency has projected a GDP growth rate of 6.8 per cent.