• Tensions between Canada and India over alleged violence against Sikhs could intensify cyber espionage and hinder immigration.
• Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, accusing them of involvement in the shooting of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
• The dispute has caused a backlog of immigration applications from India, Canada's top source for temporary foreign workers and international students.
• Despite the diplomatic dispute, trade relations between the two countries remain strong, with minimal impact expected.

The escalating tensions between Canada and India over alleged violence against Sikhs in Canada could potentially intensify cyber espionage from India and hinder immigration. This deepening dispute comes in the wake of a senior Canadian official's statement to a parliamentary national security committee, accusing Indian Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of masterminding the alleged plots.

Indian officials have dismissed these allegations, but the disclosure could exacerbate a dispute that began a year ago when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cited credible evidence linking Indian agents to the June 2023 shooting of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

In response to the shooting, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats earlier this month, accusing them of involvement in the incident. Four men have been charged with Nijjar's murder. The Canadian signals intelligence agency, known as Communications Security Establishment Canada, has warned that New Delhi is likely already conducting threatening cyber activity against Canadian networks for spying purposes. Caroline Xavier, head of the agency, stated at a press conference that as tensions between Canada and India potentially escalate, India may want to flex its cyber threat actions against Canadians.

Diplomatic Front and Immigration Impact

On the diplomatic front, Ottawa is unlikely to take more punitive steps until more details of the Nijjar case emerge, according to Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada think tank. Cabinet ministers are due to testify about the matter to the national security committee, and the murder trial of the four men charged with Nijjar's murder has yet to begin.

India is the top source for temporary foreign workers and international students coming to Canada, but a backlog of applications has built up since Trudeau's allegations last year. Canada only has four immigration officials left in India, down from 27 in October 2023, which affects Canada's ability to process visas on-site, according to Immigration Minister Marc Miller.

Trade Relations Amid Tensions

Despite the diplomatic dispute, trade relations between the two countries remain strong. India is Canada's 10th largest trading partner, and New Delhi has made it clear that it does not want trade flows to be affected. A study by Nadjibulla's foundation showed that Trudeau's statement in October 2023 had little or no effect on bilateral trade.

However, the political tensions have not affected trade, according to Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance. He stated that India and Canada have great potential in their trading relationship and expressed hope for a return to positive trade discussions.