(Photo : Trump vs Harris)
Trump vs Harris

• The U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to have a prolonged wait for results due to a surge in early and mail-in voting.
• The "red mirage" and "blue shift" phenomenon, witnessed in the 2020 election, could repeat, with seven battleground states likely to decide the election.
• Each state has unique rules for handling and counting ballots, which could further delay the final results.
• Both the Trump and Harris camps are preparing for potential legal challenges, which could further delay the outcome.

As the U.S. presidential election draws near, the nation is bracing for a potentially prolonged wait for the results. The race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is expected to be razor-thin, and the winner may not be known for days after the polls close on November 5. The delay in results is largely due to the surge in early and mail-in voting, a trend that has been embraced more readily by Democrats than Republicans. This is partly due to Trump's false claims that mail ballots are untrustworthy, which has led to Democrats living in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer, to opt for this method of voting.

The Phenomenon of Red Mirage and Blue Shift

The phenomenon of a red mirage followed by a blue shift was witnessed in the 2020 election. Trump was leading on election night, but as more votes were tallied, Democrat Joe Biden overtook him. This shift was used by Trump to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen. Seven battleground states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - are likely to decide the election. Each state has its own rules for handling and counting ballots, which could further delay the final results.

In Arizona, nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close. Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day cannot be processed until the polls have closed. This often sizable number can take days to count.

Battleground States and Their Unique Voting Rules

In Georgia, early in-person voting is popular, with officials expecting 65% to 70% of ballots to be cast at early poll locations. Absentee or mail ballots can be processed starting two weeks before the election, but workers must wait until Election Day to begin counting them.

Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time since the 2020 election and has begun permitting jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before.

Nevada's slow vote counting in 2020 launched countless memes, but officials say changes since then should speed up the process. Counties were permitted to begin processing and counting mail ballots on Oct. 21. However, Nevada still might not get called right away as it is the only battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots.

Potential Legal Challenges and Election Outcome

As the nation waits for the results, both the Trump and Harris camps are preparing court challenges of results in tightly-contested areas, which could delay the outcome even longer. The uncertainty surrounding the election results has led to speculation that Trump may prematurely declare victory, a move that could create skepticism that any votes that come in after Election Day are illegitimate and signs of unproven fraud.

Despite the potential for delays and disputes, the U.S. election system has proven resilient in the past. In the 2000 election, for example, the Supreme Court ultimately halted the Florida recount, determining that George W. Bush was the victor over Al Gore two months after the election by just 537 votes.

As the American experiment nears its semiquincentennial, the nation is once again being tested. The 2024 election is not just about choosing a president, but also about reaffirming the nation's commitment to democracy, the rule of law, and the peaceful transfer of power. Regardless of the outcome, the election will be a defining moment in American history, a testament to the resilience of the democratic process and the enduring power of the people's voice.