(Photo : Trump vs Harris)
Trump vs Harris

• Kamala Harris holds a marginal lead over Donald Trump in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, with 46% to Trump's 43%.
• The poll reveals a gloomy electorate, with a majority believing the country is on the wrong track.
• Trump leads on the economy and immigration, while Harris leads on addressing political extremism, threats to democracy, abortion policy, and healthcare policy.
• The 2024 US presidential election outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout, particularly in key battleground states.

In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a marginal lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, with 46% to Trump's 43%. This slim lead, within the margin of error, underscores the extraordinarily tight race leading up to the November 5 election. The poll also reveals a gloomy electorate, with a majority believing the country is on the wrong track.

The poll, which closed on Monday, showed little difference from a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier, which had Harris leading Trump 45% to 42%. This consistency reinforces the view that the contest remains exceptionally close with just two weeks left before the election.

The poll also revealed that voters have a dim view of the state of the economy and immigration, with a majority favoring Trump's approach on these issues. Some 70% of registered voters in the poll said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60% said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65% said the same of immigration policy.

Key Issues and Voter Preferences

When asked which candidate had the better approach on these issues, Trump led on the economy - 46% to 38% - and on immigration by 48% to 35%. Immigration also ranked as the No. 1 issue when respondents were asked what the next president should focus on most in their first 100 days in office. Some 35% picked immigration, with 11% citing income inequality and equal 10% shares citing healthcare and taxes.

However, Trump fared poorly on the question of which candidate was better to address political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading 42% to 35%. She also led on abortion policy and on healthcare policy.

Despite Harris' lead over Trump, it might not be enough to win the election even if it holds through Nov 5. National surveys, including Reuters/Ipsos polls, give important signals on the views of the electorate, but the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive.

The Role of Battleground States and Voter Turnout

Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, triumphing in the Electoral College even though she won the national popular vote by 2 points. Polls have shown Harris and Trump are neck and neck in those battleground states.

The poll gave signs that voters - particularly Democrats - might be more enthused about this year's election than they were ahead of the November 2020 presidential election when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump. Some 79% of registered voters in the poll - including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans - said they were completely certain they would cast a ballot in the presidential election. The share of sure-to-vote poll respondents was up from 74% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Oct. 23-27, 2020, when 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans said they were certain to cast ballots.

Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June. Trump at the time was widely seen as the frontrunner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.

In the final analysis, the 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with both candidates running neck and neck in the polls. The outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout, particularly in the key battleground states. As the election draws closer, both candidates will be ramping up their efforts to win over undecided voters and ensure their supporters turn out to vote. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 U.S. adults online, nationwide, including 3,481 registered voters. Some 3,307 of the respondents were considered the most likely to turn out on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris held a 3-percentage-point lead over Trump, 48% to 45%.