• Russia expresses concern over Japan's shifting nuclear policy and increased naval activities near its borders.
• The Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, a military exercise involving South Korea, the US, and Japan, has sparked regional concerns.
• China's growing missile capabilities and Russia's presence in the Arctic add to the regional instability.
• Russia's influence in the Asia-Pacific region is complicated by historical disputes and geopolitical tensions.

Russia has recently voiced deep concern over Japan's shifting nuclear policy. The Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, has expressed apprehension over Japan's potential erosion of its non-nuclear status. This concern stems from Japan's plans to join US nuclear missions, participate in multilateral exercises involving strategic aircraft for nuclear missions, and consider the deployment of US medium-range missiles on its territory.

Zakharova's statements, made during a weekly briefing, underscore Russia's unease with Tokyo's increased naval activities near Russia's borders in the Fast East. These activities involve members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from outside the region, further exacerbating Russia's concerns. The Russian spokesperson emphasized that Japan's policy changes pose concrete risks to regional stability and security.

The backdrop to these concerns is the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, an annually-staged summertime South Korea-US-Japan military exercise. This exercise features field maneuvers, computer-simulated command post exercises, and civil defense drills. The UFS exercise kicked off recently and is scheduled to continue until the end of August.

Regional Reactions and Broader Geopolitical Context

In response to these military exercises, South Korean civil groups have rallied against the joint military exercise with the US, expressing concerns that it intensifies nuclear confrontation and encourages war crisis. These groups have called for peace on the Korean Peninsula, highlighting the potential for these exercises to push the region closer to conflict.

In another related development, China's missile capabilities have been growing, posing a potential challenge to regional stability. China possesses a large, diverse, and growing arsenal of nuclear and non-nuclear missiles across all range classes and types. Beijing's missile forces have seen rapid growth, particularly in regional missiles, coinciding with its broader economic growth and increases in military spending.

Meanwhile, Russia's presence in the Arctic has been a subject of international attention. The Arctic states, including Russia, are performing a delicate balancing act. They aim to secure sea routes and resources but also avoid spiraling escalation in the region. Russia's discourse instrumentalizes the Arctic, domestically as identity-establishing and externally as delimiting, while previous attributes in the international context, namely peace and cooperation, are shunted to the background.

Russia's Influence in the Asia-Pacific Region

In the Asia-Pacific region, Russia's influence has been less than meets the eye. Historically, Russia has viewed Asia and Asians through a lens of cultural and civilizational inferiority, associating these terms with derogatory connotations. However, Russia and China share a similar approach to domestic politics, both favoring authoritarian forms of governance and one-party rule. This shared approach has been a source of friction in their relations with the West.

Russia's trade and economic relationship with the Asia-Pacific region has long been a victim of geopolitics. The key obstacle has been the problem of the four Southern Kuril Islands occupied by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II, which were previously held by Japan. Successive Japanese governments have tried to reclaim them for over seventy years. The dispute over the islands, referred to in Japan as the Northern Territories, has stood in the way of the two countries concluding a peace treaty to finally put the legacy of World War II behind them.

To add insult to injury, official Russian rhetoric on the subject has even turned offensive. For example, in 2015, Dmitry Rogozin, then deputy prime minister in charge of defense issues, responded to Japanese protests against a visit to the Kurils by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev by inviting Japanese officials to commit suicide.

However, the shifting geopolitical landscape, marked by Japan's changing nuclear policy, China's growing missile capabilities, and Russia's strategic maneuvers in the Arctic and Asia-Pacific, presents a complex picture. These developments underscore the intricate interplay of power dynamics, strategic interests, and security concerns in the region. As nations navigate this evolving landscape, the need for dialogue, cooperation, and conflict resolution becomes increasingly apparent.