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Market watch
- Asian stocks slump and U.S. bond yields rise ahead of crucial inflation data, following Trump's re-election.
- Bitcoin nears all-time high as Trump pledges to make the U.S. "the crypto capital of the planet.".
- Commodities weaken over concerns about China, expected to bear the brunt of Trump's threatened trade tariffs.
- The global markets are experiencing significant volatility in the wake of Trump's re-election, with long-term implications yet to unfold.
Asian stocks experienced a slump on Wednesday, unnerving investors as U.S. bond yields saw a sharp rise. This comes ahead of crucial inflation data that could potentially influence the pace of Federal Reserve policy easing. Short-term Treasury yields soared to their highest since late July as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday. This led to the U.S. dollar reaching a more than three-month peak against the yen in the latest session.
The surge in bond yields has been attributed to Donald Trump's re-election to the White House last week. Market expectations of lower taxes and higher tariffs under Trump's administration are anticipated to increase the fiscal deficit and government borrowing. Analysts also foresee Trump's proposed policies fuelling inflation, which could potentially hinder the path to lower Fed interest rates.
Kyle Rodda, a senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the current market dynamics continue to be a part of the Trump trade, which fundamentally revolves around deeper deficit spending. However, he also pointed out that a tug-of-war often emerges between stocks and bonds in such market scenarios, as higher risk-free rates can strangle valuations.
Bitcoin and Commodities Amid Trump's Victory
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is inching back towards its all-time high, just below $90,000. Market participants are betting on Trump to create a more relaxed regulatory environment after pledging to make the United States the crypto capital of the planet.
On the other hand, commodities were broadly weaker as traders expressed concerns about the outlook for key consumer China, which is expected to bear the brunt of Trump's threatened trade tariffs. Despite stimulus announcements from Beijing, there has been little optimism over an economic revival.
In the Asian market, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 0.9%, with a subindex of mainland Chinese property stocks slumping 1.3%. China's blue chips were flat. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi sagged 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's stock benchmark fell 1.1% under the weight of commodity shares. U.S. S&P 500 futures also pointed about 0.1% lower following a 0.3% decline overnight.
Currency and Interest Rates in the Wake of Trump's Win
The two-year Treasury yield stood at 4.34% after leaping to 4.367% on Tuesday for the first time since July 31. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% reached a week ago in the immediate aftermath of Trump's sweeping victory.
The dollar edged up to as high as 154.94 yen for the first time since July 30 before last changing hands at 154.56 yen. This put the currency pair, which tends to track long-term U.S. yields, on the cusp of the 155 yen per dollar level that many market participants consider a trigger point for verbal intervention by Japanese authorities.
Traders currently lay 60% odds for the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point on Dec. 18 at the conclusion of its next policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, the probability was 77%. A hot reading of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) later in the day could see those odds reduced further, with economists projecting a 0.3% monthly rise in the core gauge.