• Donald Trump's 2024 presidential victory highlighted significant polling errors, with organizations failing to predict his electoral performance.
• Notable discrepancies included veteran Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer's prediction of Kamala Harris leading in Iowa, while Trump won by 13.2 points.
• Polling errors were also seen in reliably Democratic states, with a Rutgers survey in New Jersey missing Trump's final percentage by double digits.
• The 2024 election results have prompted polling experts to question the industry's ability to adapt to changing voter behavior and communication patterns.

In a surprising turn of events, the 2024 US Presidential Election saw Donald Trump reclaiming the presidency, marking one of the most significant political comebacks in US history. This victory, however, was not without controversy, as polling organizations for the third consecutive presidential election struggled to accurately predict Trump's electoral performance.

The most notable polling miss came from veteran Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who had predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points in Iowa. However, the actual results showed a stark difference, with Trump winning the state by 13.2 points. Selzer acknowledged the discrepancy, stating, "The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today." She pledged to review data from multiple sources to understand the cause of this significant polling error.

The New York Times/Siena College poll also missed the mark, showing Harris leading in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania and Michigan tied. However, Trump ended up winning or leading in all these states.

Polling Errors and Public Reaction

Even in reliably Democratic states, polls showed significant errors. In New Jersey, the polling discrepancies were particularly severe, with a Rutgers survey in mid-October missing Trump's final percentage by double digits. James Johnson, founder of J.L. Partners, one of the few polling firms to accurately predict Trump's victory, attributed the error to familiar problems. He stated, "The key thing is people made the same mistakes they did in 2016. They understated the Trump voter who is less likely to be engaged politically, and crucially, more likely to be busy, not spending 20 minutes talking to pollsters."

Despite the polling misses, some pollsters argued that the aggregate polling data wasn't entirely wrong. Major election models showed the race as essentially a toss-up, with FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin each giving Harris 50 per cent odds of winning.

The polling misses have led to renewed criticism of the industry. Comedy Central host Jon Stewart captured the public frustration during his election night broadcast, stating, "I don't ever want to hear, 'We've corrected for the overcorrection with the voters."

Post-Election Reactions and Historical Parallels

As the election results rolled in, Harris conceded to Trump, calling on her supporters to mobilize and roll up your sleeves in a rousing speech at Howard University.

Meanwhile, Trump celebrated his triumphant return to the White House, stating, "We're going to help our country heal, and We're going to fix everything about our country. His victory was also acknowledged by world leaders, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who congratulated Trump on his impressive election victory."

The 2024 election results have prompted polling experts to question the industry's ability to adapt to changing voter behavior and communication patterns, particularly among less politically engaged voters who may be less likely to participate in traditional polling methods.

This election has drawn parallels with the 1948 US Presidential Election, where incumbent President Harry S. Truman won an upset victory over Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey, despite numerous polls and political analysts predicting a Dewey victory.