- Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in six key U.S. swing states, according to a Bloomberg poll.
- Despite trailing, Trump maintains an advantage over Harris on handling the economy and immigration.
- The election mirrors 2016's race, where polls showed a narrow lead for the Democratic candidate.
- The race remains highly competitive, with the final outcome to be determined on election day.
In the latest Bloomberg poll, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is seen to have a narrow lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in six key U.S. swing states, while being tied in a seventh. The poll, which was released on Friday, suggests that the upcoming Nov. 5 contest could be decided by the narrowest of margins.
Harris is leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two candidates are tied in Georgia. Across these seven states, Harris is ahead by 3 percentage points among likely voters, a lead that is 2 points higher than last month.
The poll also revealed that 47% of likely voters believe Harris will win the election, regardless of whether they support her, compared to roughly 40% who believe Trump will win. This indicates a recent momentum for Harris.
Trump's Economic Advantage and Immigration Trust
Despite trailing in the polls, Trump still maintains an advantage over Harris on who would be better at handling the economy. His lead, however, is narrowing. His advantage was just 4 percentage points in the latest poll, down from 6 points in August. On the question of immigration, Trump enjoys a 14-point trust advantage among likely voters, even though during a Sept. 10 debate he amplified a false claim that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating residents' pets.
The poll surveyed 6,165 registered voters in seven swing states and was conducted online from Sept. 19 to Sept. 25. Likely voters totaled 5,692. For both registered and likely voters, the statistical margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states. For the individual states, the margin of error was 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and 4 points in Nevada.
Historical Similarities and Additional News
In a historical context, this election is reminiscent of the 2016 presidential race where the polls also showed a narrow lead for the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, over Trump in several swing states. However, Trump managed to secure a victory in the electoral college despite losing the popular vote. This serves as a reminder that while polls provide a snapshot of the current state of the race, they are not definitive predictors of the final outcome.
In addition to the Bloomberg poll, other relevant news information indicates a fierce competition between Harris and Trump. An Ohio county sheriff has spoken out after telling residents to write down the addresses of homeowners with signs supporting Vice President Kamala Harris in their front yards. This incident underscores the heightened political tensions in the lead-up to the election.
Furthermore, a New York Times poll of battleground states released on Monday showed Trump was narrowly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. This suggests that while Harris may be leading in some swing states, the race remains highly competitive.
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