- U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in a recent NBC News poll.
- A separate CBS News poll also shows Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points.
- Despite national polls, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College will ultimately determine the election winner.
- The shift in election narrative from a referendum on Joe Biden to a referendum on Donald Trump could be a game-changer.
In a recent political development, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, by 5 percentage points, according to an NBC News poll. The poll, which was released on Sunday, revealed that Harris's favorability has seen a significant increase since she became the Democratic nominee for president. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters, and 48% of them expressed a positive view of Harris, a substantial increase from the 32% favorability she held in July.
This leap in approval ratings is the largest among politicians as per NBC's polling data since President George W. Bush's popularity surged following the September 11, 2001, attacks. On the other hand, Donald Trump's favorability has seen a marginal increase. 40% of the respondents viewed him positively, a slight rise from 38% in July. The poll was conducted between September 13 and 17, and it carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Harris Outperforms Trump in Separate CBS News Poll
In a separate poll conducted by CBS News, Harris was again found leading Trump, this time by 4 percentage points, with 52% of likely voters favoring her compared to Trump's 48%. This poll, which has a margin of error rate of plus or minus 2 percentage points, aligns with the findings of the NBC News poll. These findings are consistent with other recent national polls, including those conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, indicating a close contest as the nation heads towards the November 5 election.
However, it's important to note that while national surveys provide valuable insights into the electorate's views, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College are what ultimately determine the winner. A few key battleground states are likely to be decisive in this regard.
Trump and Harris: A Tale of Two Candidates
Donald Trump, aged 78, is making his third consecutive bid for the White House after losing to Joe Biden in 2020. Despite facing federal and state criminal charges over efforts to overturn the election results, Trump continues to falsely attribute his loss to widespread voter fraud. On the other hand, Kamala Harris, 59, is a former U.S. senator and prosecutor currently serving under Biden. If she wins, she would make history as the first woman to serve as president in the nation's 248-year history.
Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told NBC's Meet the Press that Harris has managed to shift the focus of the election from a referendum on Joe Biden to a referendum on Donald Trump.
This shift in narrative could potentially be a game-changer in the upcoming election. In the CBS poll, which surveyed 3,129 registered voters between September 18 and 20, Harris's favorability edged up 2 percentage points after a 50-50 split in August. This increase was bolstered by her performance in the September 10 debate and the brightening economic news.
Historically, such shifts in favorability ratings have had significant impacts on election outcomes. For instance, George W. Bush's approval ratings soared after the 9/11 attacks, which played a crucial role in his re-election in 2004. Similarly, Barack Obama's approval ratings saw a significant boost after the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011, which contributed to his re-election in 2012.
However, the final outcome will depend on the state-by-state results of the Electoral College, with a few key battleground states likely to play a decisive role. As the nation heads towards the November 5 election, all eyes will be on these key states and how the narrative continues to evolve.
