• Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 45% to 41% in the presidential race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
• Harris has gained support among women and Hispanics, while Trump maintains a lead among white voters and men.
• In battleground states, Harris either leads or ties with Trump, with a notable lead in North Carolina, a state Democrats haven't won since 2008.
• The upcoming presidential debate could sway public opinion, with the election potentially hinging on voter turnout and the ability of each campaign to energize its base.

In a significant shift in the US political landscape, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for the presidency. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals that Harris now leads Trump 45% to 41% among registered voters.

This is a marked increase from a 1 point lead she held over the former president in a late July poll. The shift in voter preference has brought a new wave of enthusiasm and has significantly impacted the dynamics of the race ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, showed Harris gaining support among women and Hispanics. She led Trump by 49% to 36% - a 13 percentage point advantage - among both demographics. This is a notable increase from July, where Harris had a 9 point lead among women and a 6 point lead among Hispanics.

However, Trump still maintains a lead among white voters and men, both by similar margins as in July. His lead among voters without a college degree has narrowed to 7 points in the latest survey, down from 14 points in July.

The US presidential race has seen significant changes over the summer. President Joe Biden, 81, ended his campaign on July 21 after a disastrous debate performance against Trump sparked widespread calls from his fellow Democrats to abandon his re-election bid. Since then, Harris has gained ground against Trump in national polls and those in critical swing states.

Harris's Lead in Battleground States

In the seven states where the 2020 election was closest - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada - Trump had a 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters in the poll. However, a separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll published later on Thursday showed that Harris was either leading or tied with Trump in each of those states.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Harris has a 2-point average edge over Trump when it comes to registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She is ahead by 1 point, a statistical tie, when the poll is restricted to likely voters in these states. The lead was strongest in Wisconsin, where she edged out Trump by 8 points among registered voters, followed by Nevada and Pennsylvania, where she led by 4 points in each.

Harris's lead in North Carolina is especially notable, as no Democratic presidential candidate has won there since former President Obama in 2008. The gains Harris has seen in the Tar Heel State prompted the nonpartisan group Cook Political Report to shift the state's presidential race from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

Enthusiasm for Harris and Upcoming Events

Since formally accepting the Democratic nomination last week, Harris has embarked on a tour of battleground states including Georgia, where Biden had been hemorrhaging support before he ended his campaign. The enthusiasm for Harris is palpable among Democratic voters.

Some 73% of Democratic registered voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they were more excited about voting in November after Harris entered the race. And while a March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 61% respondents who intended to vote for Biden were doing so mainly to stop Trump, 52% of Harris voters in the August poll were voting to support her as a candidate rather than primarily to oppose Trump.

We see it in this poll that people are more motivated about the future than the past, said Aimee Allison, founder of She the People, a liberal group that aims to grow the numbers of women of color in elected office. They see Kamala Harris as the future, and Republicans see this election as just about Trump. Voters are more likely to be engaged when given the option of 'more than' beating Trump.

However, Trump voters also voiced enthusiasm about their candidate, with 64% saying their choice was more motivated by backing Trump than opposing Harris. Voters picked Trump as having a better approach to managing the US economy, 45% to 36%, a wider margin than Trump had in another Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.

Upcoming Presidential Debate

The upcoming presidential debate between Harris and Trump, scheduled for September 10 at 9 p.m. EDT in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is another significant event that could sway public opinion. The debate will be hosted by ABC News and will air on ABC and stream on ABC News Live, Disney+ and Hulu.

However, the race remains tight, and the upcoming events, including the presidential debate, could further sway public opinion. The election could hinge on voter turnout and the ability of each campaign to energize its base and win over undecided voters in these critical states.

The presence of third-party candidates could also influence the race, although their impact is generally expected to be limited. As the election draws closer, all eyes will be on these key factors that could determine the next occupant of the White House.