(Photo : x.com/EmmanuelMacron)

• French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Serbia signals a potential shift in Serbia's foreign policy.
• The potential purchase of France's Rafale fighters could mark a departure from Serbia's traditional reliance on Soviet-Russian influence.
• The Rafale deal could also signify a shift in Serbia's military alignment and have implications for its energy sector.
• Macron's visit and the potential deal underscore the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the Balkans.

In a significant move to bolster ties with Serbia and bring it closer to the West, French President Emmanuel Macron embarked on a two-day visit to Belgrade. This visit, which is Macron's second meeting with Serbia's populist Aleksandar Vucic this year, underscores Serbia's strategic position on the edge of the EU, with ties to both the east and west. The visit comes in the wake of Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Belgrade in May, highlighting the geopolitical tug-of-war for influence in the Balkan country. Serbia, while pursuing its European Union membership bid, has maintained close ties with Russia and China. However, Macron's visit signals a potential shift in Serbia's foreign policy orientation.

Potential Rafale Deal: A Departure from Russian Influence

One of the key issues on the agenda for Macron and Vucic is the purchase of France's Rafale fighters, made by Dassault. The deal, estimated at around 3 billion euros ($3.34 billion), has been a subject of intense negotiation. Vucic, in a statement to state RTS TV, clarified that the unresolved issues with the purchase were not about the price, but rather about certain guarantees. The potential Rafale deal is seen by experts as a significant departure from Serbia's traditional reliance on Soviet-Russian influence. Aleksandar Zivotic, a history lecturer at the Belgrade University, described the aircraft sale as a historical and political departure from Soviet-Russian influence. He further noted that such military technology is not only bought with money, but with foreign policy position pledges.

Serbia's Military Alignment and EU Membership Bid

Serbia's military and air force are loosely based on Soviet technology, but it has also purchased helicopters and transport planes from Airbus, radars from Thales, and France's Mistral surface-to-air missiles. Despite condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Serbia, unlike the EU and other Western countries, has not imposed sanctions on Moscow. The Rafale deal, if it materializes, could mark a significant shift in Serbia's military alignment. It could also have implications for Serbia's energy sector, as the country, which seeks to diversify its gas supplies, is currently dependent on Russian gas. Macron and Vucic are also expected to discuss cooperation in the fields of energy and artificial intelligence, with a number of corresponding agreements slated to be signed. Macron, in an op-ed piece in Serbia's pro-government Politika daily, wrote that Belgrade could maintain its independent posture only under the auspices of the EU.

Macron's visit to Serbia and the potential Rafale deal underscore the complex geopolitical dynamics at play in the Balkans. As Serbia navigates its path towards EU membership while maintaining ties with Russia and China, the decisions it makes could have significant implications for the balance of power in the region. The visit and the potential deal also highlight the role of military technology and foreign policy pledges in shaping the geopolitical landscape.