(Photo : Rupee--Wikipedia)

• The Indian rupee's trajectory is uncertain due to subdued volatility and the RBI's interventions.
• The global forex market is focused on the US interest rate outlook, which impacts the rupee's value.
• The RBI's regular interventions and expected equity inflows provide hope for the rupee's stability.
• The upcoming US core PCE data and other labor market indicators will be key in determining the Federal Reserve's next move, which will impact the rupee's value.

The Indian rupee, in line with other Asian currencies, is projected to open marginally lower, with the central bank's intervention playing a pivotal role in maintaining its narrow range. The one-month non-deliverable forward suggests a slight dip from its previous close of 83.9250 against the US dollar. The rupee's trajectory has been somewhat uncertain due to subdued volatility, with most market participants predicting a downward breakout from its current narrow range.

The bearish outlook is fueled by persistent demand from importers, lackluster portfolio flows, and the rupee's tendency to underperform when the dollar struggles. A currency trader at a bank expressed the prevailing sentiment, stating, The sense is that we will get to 84 and that, in most likelihood, should mean a new leg higher (for dollar/rupee). He further added, Obviously if the Reserve Bank of India doggedly continues to defend 84, then there is not much anybody can do.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) repeated interventions near the 83.94-83.97 range have helped the rupee stay on the right side of the 84 level. This intervention strategy by the RBI is reminiscent of similar actions taken by central banks worldwide to stabilize their respective currencies. For instance, in 2018, the Turkish central bank intervened to stabilize the lira when it was under significant pressure.

US Interest Rate Outlook and Its Impact on Global Forex Markets

The global forex market's focus is squarely on the US interest rate outlook. After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, investors are keen to gauge the size of the cut and the extent of the easing cycle. The US core PCE data due Friday and other data points indicating the health of the labor market hold the key to the Fed's next meeting. The dollar and forex markets seem to be looking for the next catalyst, whether it be the Fed or global growth expectations, according to a note by MUFG Bank.

The rupee traded lower on Wednesday, but a well-recognized support level ensured that the currency fared better than many of its Asian peers. The rupee was at 83.95 to the US dollar, compared with 83.9250 in the previous session. The currency has been holding a near one paisa range, having opened marginally weaker at the open. The rupee yet again does not seem at risk of falling past 84, which should surprise absolutely no one, a currency trader at a bank said.

The RBI does not seem to be in favor of allowing the rupee to weaken past 84 right now, intervening regularly, according to traders. The central bank's intervention, alongside expected equity inflows, provides a glimmer of hope for the rupee, Amit Pabari, managing director at fx advisory firm CR Forex said.

Federal Reserve's Decision and Its Impact on the Rupee

On Wednesday, July 31, the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged and indicated that only one rate cut is likely before the end of the year. The federal funds rate remains within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The traders looked at the dot plot to determine if and when a cut would occur. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has several different views on this front.

Despite the slowing path of inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell initially expressed some doubts over the possibility of cutting rates in 2024. But, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, he confirmed the US central bank will start cutting rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced on Friday that the time has come for the US to begin reducing interest rates. He stated that he has "gained confidence" that progress in the fight against inflation is on the right course.

Equity inflows of up to $3 billion are expected following changes in the MSCI's index which tracks emerging markets shares to come into effect from August 30. These inflows, along with the RBI's interventions, provide some hope for the rupee's stability, despite a generally bearish market sentiment.

In conclusion, the trajectory of the Indian rupee is influenced by a multitude of factors, including the RBI's interventions, the U.S. interest rate outlook, and market sentiment. The upcoming U.S. core PCE data and other labor market indicators will be key in determining the Federal Reserve's next move, which will subsequently impact the rupee's value. The RBI's interventions and expected equity inflows provide some hope for the rupee's stability, despite a generally bearish market sentiment. The rupee's value against the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken slightly, with the RBI's interventions playing a crucial role in maintaining its stability.